New Seat Details - Dunbartonshire East

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Dunbartonshire East been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LIB	19,460	33.2%
SNP	18,875	32.2%
LAB	11,240	19.2%
CON	8,898	15.2%
UKIP	172	0.3%
LIB Majority	585	1.0%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Dunbartonshire East: Map

List of old seats forming part of Dunbartonshire East

Old seat: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Dunbartonshire	Campsie and Kirkintilloch North	7,376	Dunbartonshire East	1,163	1,476	203	76	0	2,107	0	0	5,025
East Dunbartonshire	Kirkintilloch East and Twechar	9,181	Dunbartonshire East	1,064	2,609	192	95	0	2,415	0	0	6,375
East Dunbartonshire	Lenzie and Kirkintilloch South	297	Dunbartonshire East	19	16	4	1	0	25	0	0	65
North Lanarkshire	Abronhill, Kildrum and The Village	10,933	Lanarkshire North	1,135	2,225	238	106	0	3,910	0	0	7,614
North Lanarkshire	Cumbernauld North	13,099	Lanarkshire North	1,968	2,562	217	102	0	3,751	0	0	8,600
North Lanarkshire	Cumbernauld South	14,140	Lanarkshire North	1,602	3,338	265	143	0	4,645	0	0	9,993
North Lanarkshire	Kilsyth	9,332	Lanarkshire North	1,058	2,632	119	83	0	2,270	0	0	6,162
	Total	64,358		8,009	14,858	1,238	606	0	19,123	0	0	43,834

Old seat: Dunbartonshire East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dunbartonshire East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dunbartonshire East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Dunbartonshire	Bearsden North	11,212	Dunbartonshire East; Dunbartonshire West	1,732	745	3,737	0	0	2,582	0	0	8,796
East Dunbartonshire	Bearsden South	10,639	Dunbartonshire East	1,430	838	3,599	0	0	2,527	0	0	8,394
East Dunbartonshire	Bishopbriggs North and Torrance	10,875	Dunbartonshire East	1,474	1,381	3,284	0	0	2,538	0	0	8,677
East Dunbartonshire	Bishopbriggs South	9,586	Dunbartonshire East	568	1,848	2,842	0	0	2,511	0	0	7,769
East Dunbartonshire	Campsie and Kirkintilloch North	1,682	Dunbartonshire East	102	260	513	0	0	401	0	0	1,276
East Dunbartonshire	Kirkintilloch East and Twechar	112	Dunbartonshire East	5	30	39	0	0	32	0	0	106
East Dunbartonshire	Lenzie and Kirkintilloch South	11,071	Dunbartonshire East	1,219	1,521	3,130	0	0	2,594	0	0	8,464
East Dunbartonshire	Milngavie	10,144	Dunbartonshire East	1,032	907	3,880	0	0	2,499	0	0	8,318
	Total	65,321		7,562	7,530	21,024	0	0	15,684	0	0	51,800

The full details of these calculations are given on the Dunbartonshire East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Dunbartonshire East

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Dunbartonshire East
East Dunbartonshire	Bearsden North	5,344	Dunbartonshire East	822	354	1,774	0	0	1,226	0	0	4,176
East Dunbartonshire	Bearsden South	10,743	Dunbartonshire East	1,430	838	3,599	0	0	2,527	0	0	8,394
East Dunbartonshire	Bishopbriggs North and Torrance	11,106	Dunbartonshire East	1,474	1,381	3,284	0	0	2,538	0	0	8,677
East Dunbartonshire	Bishopbriggs South	9,944	Dunbartonshire East	568	1,848	2,842	0	0	2,511	0	0	7,769
East Dunbartonshire	Campsie and Kirkintilloch North	7,629	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	1,163	1,476	203	76	0	2,107	0	0	5,025
East Dunbartonshire	Campsie and Kirkintilloch North	1,633	Dunbartonshire East	102	260	513	0	0	401	0	0	1,276
East Dunbartonshire	Kirkintilloch East and Twechar	9,679	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	1,064	2,609	192	95	0	2,415	0	0	6,375
East Dunbartonshire	Kirkintilloch East and Twechar	137	Dunbartonshire East	5	30	39	0	0	32	0	0	106
East Dunbartonshire	Lenzie and Kirkintilloch South	98	Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East	19	16	4	1	0	25	0	0	65
East Dunbartonshire	Lenzie and Kirkintilloch South	10,834	Dunbartonshire East	1,219	1,521	3,130	0	0	2,594	0	0	8,464
East Dunbartonshire	Milngavie	10,645	Dunbartonshire East	1,032	907	3,880	0	0	2,499	0	0	8,318
	Total	77,792		8,898	11,240	19,460	172	0	18,875	0	0	58,645

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Dunbartonshire East. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Jo Swinson (LIB)
County/Area:	Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:	77,792
Turnout:	75.4%

Dunbartonshire East: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Dunbartonshire East: Overview

Introduction